New evidence of the accuracy of cost prognoses.

Over the period 2002 – 2007 the final costs of all large-scale Danish highways projects were estimated using the Successive Principle. The projects have now been finished for 40 of these analyses. The actual final costs are divided around the estimated mean value with in agreement with the estimated uncertainty.

Actually, the actual average final costs came in at just under the calculated mean figure. Similarly, the spread is slightly below the calculated figures. The project managers report that they have capitalized on the potential optimization possibilities identified by the analyses. The slightly reduced final costs as well as the reduced uncertainty most likely are a result of their subsequent action plans. 

Ref.: Results appear in the Danish part of this homepage, so far only in Danish. See Here.

Steen Lichtenberg

Dr. Steen Lichtenberg

1930 - 2019 †
Accuracy of prognoses
Over a 5 year period the final costs of all Danish highway projects were predicted. The 40 analyses were perfectly in agreement with their final costs