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Following years of budget overruns of major road projects, a government body suggested the implementation of the Successive Principle. During the following 6 years of implementation, approx. 70 analyses were conducted for 29 major road projects. Thirteen of the projects have been completed. The corresponding 33 analyses were all in full accordance with the final costs. Current updates show the remaining 8 projects to have the same accuracy.
The new Norwegian airport, Gardemoen, was increasingly delayed in spite of regular risk analysis and subsequent attempts to expedite the project. Punctual opening half a year later was an absolute requirement due to international partners and international agreements.
An analysis exercise was conducted over three full days. All the major stakeholders participated and identified the absolute need to expedite the project (inclusive of a safety margin). The three most obvious areas and potentials for the necessary expediting actions were then identified and finally evaluated to cover the need. These three actions were immediately implemented, and the crucial deadline was successfully met.
A major Danish provincial town wanted to complete its inner circular road system. The existing system needed a crossing of the harbour canal. The authorities wanted to safeguard themselves from the usual budget overruns. They also wished to establish an early, yet a realistic base for the forth-coming decision-making process (which involved eight alternatives). Both bridge and tunnel options were included, as well as various capacity levels with both investments and lifecycle costs. The task was accomplished with three group analysis sessions. Regional and local authorities as well as the harbour authorities were represented by senior officials and tunnel experts. The project, the analysis and the subsequent co-operation reaped significant benefits from this broad representation.
Such projects involve new technology and many powerful stakeholders, as well as government and political interference. A railroad organisation plans to compensate for these problems by using the Successive Principle as a means not only of gaining full cost and budget control but also of selecting the right alternatives. As part of the implementation process, analyses are regularly performed, both internally and with external assistance. The first rail project to be supported from start to finish was completed to budget and on time.
A large sub-sea road tunnel, planned as a BOT venture, was analysed by the owner to obtain the realistic expected total investment sum. The project has since been completed in full accordance with the original forecast.
The expected total costs and necessary allowances for a complicated urban motorway system were analysed as well as the cost reduction potentials, in order to produce a competitive bid.
One of the bidders of a toll road tunnel project used the Successive Principle in connection with the schedule and found that it could safely be constructed one year earlier than the planned four years. The tunnel system was later constructed in the forecast three years.
The owner’s consultant used the Successive Principle in his pre-bid estimate, as did one of the competing contractors. The latter rapidly identified the critical areas, and improved his plans accordingly; his then became the lowest bid, very close to the consultant’s aforementioned pre-bid estimate. The contractor later implemented and completed the tunnel without delay and with the planned profit.
About Dr. Steen Lichtenberg